課程名稱 |
氣候變異與預測 Climate Variability and Predictability |
開課學期 |
109-1 |
授課對象 |
理學院 大氣科學研究所 |
授課教師 |
盧孟明 |
課號 |
AtmSci7081 |
課程識別碼 |
229 M8380 |
班次 |
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學分 |
3.0 |
全/半年 |
半年 |
必/選修 |
選修 |
上課時間 |
星期一7,8,9(14:20~17:20) |
上課地點 |
大氣A108 |
備註 |
與隋中興合授 總人數上限:35人 |
Ceiba 課程網頁 |
http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1091AtmSci7081_ |
課程簡介影片 |
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核心能力關聯 |
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖 |
課程大綱
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課程概述 |
氣候變異概指由大氣、海洋、陸表共同組成的氣候系統相對於三十年或更長時期平均狀態的偏離程度,重要現象有以週、月、季、年為時間單位的短期氣候變化,以及與其相依相存的年代(十年)、多年代、世紀等長週期緩慢變化。氣候變異的發生機制決定於大氣、海洋、陸表交互作用的過程,了解這些過程以及各主要變異模態對全球和區域氣候的影響是發展氣候預測的科學基礎。
本課程著重在時間尺度在三十年之內的氣候自然變化和預測,不包含尺度更長的氣候變遷或人為因素對氣候影響等課題。主要對象為碩博士班研究生,側重了解氣候變異主模態的現象與形成機制,氣候模式對氣候變異的模擬和預測能力,氣候可預測度來源的分析與解釋,氣候變異主模態與東南亞和西北太平洋以及臺灣天氣與氣候的關係。約三分之一的課程內容為講述動力氣候基本概念與文獻閱讀和討論,另三分之二為全球觀測和預測資料分析及討論。為加強對課程內容的了解,將有作業和期中進度報告,也將由學生在課程範圍內自己挑選想深入了解的研究題目在課堂討論並撰寫期末報告。 |
課程目標 |
1. To understand climate science as a process: how it is done, what skills are involved, how it applies to climate services
2. To understand issues in short-term climate (monthly to interannual) prediction
3.To understand issues in identifying the drivers of regional weather and climate extremes.
4. To analyze Asia-Pacific monsoon systems sub-seasonal scale variability and predictability with reanalysis and CWB/S2S data. |
課程要求 |
具備動力氣候學、統計分析、程式分析等基本知識
Prerequisites: Participants should have knowledge of basic climate dynamics and statistics, and have experience with computer programming. |
預期每週課後學習時數 |
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Office Hours |
另約時間 備註: make individual appointments |
指定閱讀 |
Robertson, A and Vitart, F, (eds.) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting. Elsevier. ISBN 9780128117149. |
參考書目 |
1.
2. NRC. 2010. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-15183-2
3. NRC. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873.
4. Global Physical Climatology, Second Edition,, by Dennis Hartmann. 2016. Elsevier Science.ISBN: 9780123285317 / eBook ISBN: 9780080918624 |
評量方式 (僅供參考) |
No. |
項目 |
百分比 |
說明 |
1. |
期中簡報 Midterm presentation |
10% |
1. 第1~8週閱讀或習作心得報告
2.依課程內容自選主題進行小論文研究,期中簡報含目標、方法、資料、1預期結果等研究規劃
1. Comprehensive summary of the week1~8 homework and reading assignments.
2. Final project plan: presentation must include a description of the subject, objective, data, method, expected outcomes of the term project. |
2. |
期末報告 Final project |
20% |
依課程主題與個人興趣進行小論文研究,期末繳交小論文口頭(10%)與書面(10%)報告
The final report consists of an oral presentation (10%) and written report (10%). Student can chose one of the following topics as the final report: |
3. |
作業、課堂討論參與 Homework and In-class participation |
70% |
(a) 指定閱讀心得報告與指定主題之資料分析習題(2~6頁) Summary reports of reading assignment and analysis exercise ( 2~6 pages).
(b) 課程內討論時間提問、回饋之發言情形 In-class participation. |
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週次 |
日期 |
單元主題 |
第1週 |
9/14 |
Introduction (1) - course overview
Required reading: CLIVAR Science Plan_Final.pdf |
第2週 |
9/21 |
ntroduction (2) - climate analysis, monitoring, attribution Required reading: Blunden and Arndt, Eds., 2020: State of the Climate in 2019 (BAMS) |
第3週 |
9/28 |
Introduction (3) – The Asian-Australian monsoons |
第4週 |
10/05 |
Introduction (4) - Why S2S? WWRP/WCRP S2S Phase II Proposal ; The S2S Researches |
第5週 |
10/12 |
Sources of S2S predictability: MJO and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (1) |
第6週 |
10/19 |
Sources of S2S predictability: MJO and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (2) |
第7週 |
10/26 |
Sources of S2S predictability: Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections |
第8週 |
11/02 |
Sources of S2S predictability: SST |
第9週 |
11/09 |
I. Mid-term presentation and discussion
{ (1) HW1~5 Summary ; (2) Term project plan }
II. Sources of S2S predictability: OHC (WBC & the Philippine Sea) |
第10週 |
11/16 |
ENSO dynamics and prediction
{ Lecturer: Prof. C.H. Sui } |
第11週 |
11/23 |
Sources of S2S predictability: ENSO(2) {Lecturer: Prof. Bin Wang /CWB's Training Video} |
第12週 |
11/30 |
Sources of S2S predictability: Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections (2) |
第13週 |
12/07 |
Sources of S2S predictability: Stratosphere |
第14週 |
12/14 |
S2S Prediction: Ensembles |
第15週 |
12/21 |
S2S Prediction Application: Extremes (heatwaves, atmospheric rivers) |
第16週 |
12/28 |
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones |
第17週 |
1/04 |
Final report presentation and discussion |
第18週 |
1/11 |
Final report individual discussions
{ written reports are due on January 15 } |
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